FOREX TRADING

News out of the Euro zone that GDP rose only .1% for Q4 is adding insult to injury on what is already a precarious position for the region. The expectation was for .4% growth. Germany, the economic stalwart of the region reported zero growth for the quarter on reduced consumption levels.

In addition to this, China announced it would be raising its bank reserve requirements again for the second time in a month as they attempt to tame growth and prevent asset bubbles by curbing bank lending. This had little effect last time around as record loans were reported recently. This could have a major impact on the world economy if China deliberately slows its growth. As a result of these developments, this morning is clearly a risk-aversion day. Also to note is that Monday is a US bank holiday.

As to the currencies:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is down right now due primarily to risk aversion and the news out of China. China is the largest importer of Australian raw materials so this could be seen as negative for the Australian economy despite the fact that they reported its biggest job boom in 5 years. This may make it hard to pause on interest rates as had previously been the plan. Futures are indicating a 44% chance that rates are hiked to 4% in early March.
Kiwi (NZD): The interest rate situation in New Zealand may be more stable than in Australia as weaker retail sales, high unemployment, and a slowing housing market should keep rates steady at 2.5% until at least mid-year. The Kiwi is also down on risk-aversion this morning.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is falling in line on the risk totem pole as global fears dominate this morning. There is no news this morning from Canada except that today is the start of the Winter Olympics in Vancouver. The economic windfall from having the Games should help the economy although they need to be careful of the “hangover” that sometimes occurs from these one-time events.
Euro (EUR): As mentioned above, weaker than expected GDP figures have pushed the Euro to a 9-month low vs. the US dollar, trading as low as 1.3530. Fears of a double dip recession have the EU on heightened alert and the measure they’ve announced to bailout Greece are being compared to the US Treasury’s “bazooka” used to stabilize the US. Now all eyes will be on the other PIIGS countries to see if they are going to require bailouts as well.
Pound (GBP): The Pound is down on risk aversion though it is higher vs. the commodity currencies. Its holding support at 1.56 vs. the US dollar as it has been trading in a tight range recently. The pound may be benefitting from “less ugly” syndrome than its neighbor, the Euro.
Dollar (USD): Lost this morning in all of the risk talk is that US retail sales came in at .5% for January which was better than the .3% expectation. The Dollar is higher on risk fears and the flight to safety trade, as US stocks are lower before the long weekend.
Yen (JPY): The yen is higher on risk aversion plays this morning, though the news out of China is affecting its strength. Consumer confidence figures were higher in Japan this morning and its GDP report is expected on Monday to show it probably grew at its fastest pace in more than a year as exports surged.
Overnight Asian equity markets were mixed and Europe is currently mixed as well, as the US retail sales figures helped pare back gains. US futures are set to open lower and it will be interesting to see if the market can claw back today as it goes into the long holiday weekend. Gold and oil are also down this morning, contributing to US dollar strength.
Well, nothing comes easy. For every bit of good news out there, there is bad news as well. Financial markets will continue to be volatile as long as there is global economic uncertainty.